Oh dear, it’s happening again. A glimpse of the bad old days. The days when Chinese state media report statistics that are so patently misleading, all the progress made in the timely reporting of bird flu cases is shot to pieces and international suspicion is once again well and truly aroused.
Embarrassing figure number one: 300. This is the number of pigs Xinhua reported on May 10 to have died from blue ear disease in southern China. At the time, AP quoted Hong Kong media as saying 1,300 pigs had been infected. Even this figure was put in the shade by a highly informative Reuters report on May 18, which claimed one million pigs had been wiped out over the last year in various parts of China.
The only place the Chinese government has publicly acknowledged the latest outbreak is Yunfu in western Guangdong province, a 5-1/2-hour train and road trip from Hong Kong.
Officials say some 300 swine died in and around the collection of villages that make up the township of Silao, which is part of Yunfu.
However, a drive through the countryside lends credence to the belief that the official number of swine deaths is low.
Before the outbreak, many farmers, perhaps most, kept a pig or two on family plots, locals said. Many, like Zhu, kept litters that numbered in the dozens.
Not a single pig was seen in more than two hours in the area talking to farmers and feed sellers.
Still not a word from Xinhua. The previous day, China’s agriculture ministry had called on local authorities to do more to curb the spread of the disease.
We face a severe situation in prevention as it is the peak outbreak season of the highly contagious blue ear disease,” agriculture minister Sun Zhengcai said in a speech.
“If the disease was not properly controlled, the pig breeding industry, income of farmers and stability of the pork market would be badly hurt,” Sun told a national conference.
But Xinhua missed the statement. I have banged on all week about the need to write something on the issue, preferably a report of the latest situation in Guangdong by the bureau based in the province. Otherwise, silence just shouts “cover-up!” As far as I know there has been no official instruction banning the reporting of blue ear disease from Guangdong. It seems the bureau there is just refusing to report anything. Nothing new to write, it says. Is it being gagged by the local government or is it just being incredibly lazy? I have no idea.
So, while the one million figure (the number for the whole year) - in fact I feel I need to put it into numbers for extra effect: 1,000,000 - is freely banded around the international press, Xinhua last reported 300. And then comes a direct consequence of the epidemic - the price of pork “flies to a new high” according to a report by the China Daily. It was a woeful piece of journalism. Apparently the price of pork had risen “due to a decrease in the number of pigs” but there was not one mention of blue ear disease in the story. Instead the blame was placed on the rise in corn price and this hilarious reason:
He (Zhang Zhiqiang from the Jinan pricing administration) said the demand for vegetables normally increases in summer, and people also have the choice of beef, mutton, chicken and fish, which are in abundant supply.
The article also noted “a supermarket salesman in Beijing said fewer people are buying pork this week”. So is that because it is too expensive or is it down to a mysterious pig disease that Beijingers have heard about but know nothing about?
Finally, on Wednesday evening, Xinhua releases a story. The news point was buried but this is it:
Along with temperature hikes, blue ear disease, also known as Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS), broke out among pigs in south China’s Guangdong Province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, causing many deaths and a large amount of pigs to be culled, according to the National Development and Reform Commission. Officials from the Ministry of Agriculture, which is in charge of agricultural production and animal husbandry, declined to make any comment on the issue.
The outbreak can be seen as an immediate cause of a short supply in the regions, which need to buy pigs from northern provinces, according to Xu Lianzhong, a senior economist with the price supversion center under the National Development and Reform Commission.
“This sent a strong signal for distributors to jack up prices,” said Xu.
Still no figure, but now the Ministry of Agriculture is refusing to comment. Xinhua 300, Reuters 1,000,000. NB I’m finding the updates provided by Pig Progress - “Your portal on global pig production” - on this subject to be concise and informative.
Embarrassing figure number two: 50. This is the number of tubes of toothpaste contaminated with the chemical diethylene glycol that, according to Xinhua, have been taken off the shelves in Panama. I can just imagine a customer fom Panama phoning up China and saying 50 tubes por favor. Hardly worth the phone call. Luckily, China Daily had the right figures, quoting Dominican Republic government officials and the New York Times. 10,000 tubes in the Dominican Republic and 6,000 in Panama. Reuters later reported 200,000. Xinhua is sticking with 50 because their reporter in Panama hasn’t bothered to submit a report on the incident for a whole week. It doesn’t believe New York Times is a credible enough source to quote. It seems it doesn’t believe the Dominican Republic government can be trusted either. Xinhua 50, Rest of the World Thousands.
Incidentally, it doesn’t really matter if the toothpaste is contaminated according to Danyang Household Chemical Company, one of the Chinese exporters under investigation, which was quoted by Reuters:
‘Toothpaste is not something you’d swallow, but spit out, and so it’s totally different from something you would eat,’ one company manager, who declined to be identified, said by telephone from the eastern province of Jiangsu.
Ah, that’s all right then. Contaminate away!
Reuters released a story on Thursday about a mobile phone text message that is doing the rounds in China which claims bananas on Hainan might contain similar viruses to SARS. Almost certainly rubbish but it is hardly surprising dodgy and out-of-date statistics spark bizarre rumour.
Jeremiah | 25-May-07 at 8:08 am | Permalink
I think for lunch…I’ll have the chicken, or maybe just go vegetarian, or only a diet coke, or simply starve.
Erik | 25-May-07 at 12:27 pm | Permalink
Hi,
I like your blog, but I feel the need to protect the Chinese government against charges of a cover-up.
I cover commodities in China for a western news agency, and the government actually has been open about the decline in the domestic hog population. See the Ministry of Agriculture’s own website (Chinese):
http://www.agri.gov.cn/fxycpd/yl/t20070524_821683.htm
去年7月中旬的高温引起生猪“高热病”，导致生猪死亡率升高，从去年上半年开始，生猪存栏略有下降，2006年下降1.8%，今年一季度下降0.3%，前期，广东地区猪蓝耳病的爆发，生猪存栏量进一步降低，而生猪补栏饲养周期较长，对饲料的需求形成一定制约。
According to the MoA, China’s hog population declined 0.3% in Q1 2007. In a country with 467 million head, this works out to about 1.4 million head.
However, this isn’t from Blue-ear pig disease. Swine fever and other diseases have been sweeping the country. Last year, China’s hog population fell by 1.8%, or 8.4 million head, largely due to swine fever, not blue-ear pig disease. This is in addition to the 0.3% fall in Q1 ‘07.
Pork prices have risen to the extent that the government has mulled releasing its strategic pork reserves in the event of a shortage (sorry, no link), and, despite your mockery of the China Daily story, the price of livestock feedstuff (corn, soybeans are primarily used for livestock feed in China) has been a factor.
Global investment in ethanol has pushed up corn prices and eaten into soybean cultivation acreage - thus pushing up soybean prices. There has also been a spillover affect on wheat, which is now being used as a substitute for corn in some areas of China.
For readers outside of China, don’t worry too much about eating tainted pork. Pork exports are very very small (a couple hundred-thousand tons / yr) given the scale of China’s pork industry, and a lot of this is sent to Russia and Vietnam.
This information has been known to people in and those who cover the industry for some time. I guess it’s finally catching on outside of the commodities sector.
The problem isn’t that the Chinese government hasn’t reported it. The problem is that much of the Western Media isn’t good at reporting it. Maybe they don’t read Chinese.
Anyway, sorry for the long comment and keep up the good work.
Erik
Du Yisa | 25-May-07 at 12:58 pm | Permalink
Business as usual.
You might recall that in 2005, South Korean health authorities reported finding parasite eggs in kimchi imported from the PRC, which caused a stir in the ROK media, and resulted in a halt of all imports of PRC kimchi.
In response, the PRC government banned the import of 7 brands of Korean kimchi, claiming they had been contaminated with parasites. What was notable about this was that some of the companies on the list didn’t even export their products to the PRC, which revealed one of two things: 1. it was a blatant and rather crude act of political theatre (the most likely scenario); 2. perhaps contaminated kimchi was in fact found bearing the brands of the companies in question, because the shelves of PRC groceries were rife with fake and contaminated PRC copies of Korean products (words fail me).
Note that it does not affect Korean businesses if the PRC bans the import of products they don’t export to it anyway. The primary audience for the PRC govt’s message was domestic. It was a matter of face. Funny how the government always makes itself look less credible (read: even more ridiculous) under such circumstances.
If the tainted PRC toothpaste becomes a cause célèbre in the Dominican Republic and Panama, similar retaliation could potentially result - the fact that those countries might not export anything to the PRC won’t prevent the govt here from drawing up a blacklist. On the other hand, it probably won’t, because the DOR and Panama aren’t major trading partners with the PRC, and PRC citizens don’t pay attention to their media, anyway.
However, the world pays attention to what US and EU health organizations say, which brings me to the next point in this tirade:
On the weekend (the evening of Saturday 19 May, to be gratuitously precise), I saw part of a program on CCTV 9 in which the interviewer was discussing food safety with a guest from a foreign health organization. This was after the PRC government retracted its initial denials and finally admitted - in the face of overwhelming evidence (animal deaths in the USA and South Africa) - that pet food exported from their country were in fact contaminated with melamine, which somehow managed to slip past local authorities, in spite of their dedicated vigilance.
The interviewer made an assertion which I have heard many times before. To paraphrase, she asked, “Haven’t other countries also faced similar problems during corresponding periods in their development?”
This is an interesting question, because if we examine it at all beyond its face value as a blithe attempt at self-exculpation, it actually turns out to be devestatingly incriminating - in such a blindingly obvious way as to reveal the lie at the center of the current PRC development project.
Let’s see… what other countries have faced similar problems during a similar stage of their development… perhaps Mexico, Egypt or Indonesia… not exactly flattering comparisons, so let’s assume the question wants to draw a parallel between the PRC and developed nations, like EU members, Japan, Canada, the USA, Australia, etc. So, what corresponds?
The reason China has developed so quickly is fundamentally due to foreign investment, and the application of foreign systems and technology. This applies to everything from infrastructure (e.g. transportation networks, communications, waste disposal, etc.) to monetary policy.
(As an aside, the puffery from many PRC citizens about the rapid development of the country has occasionally made me laugh out loud; if foreign investors introduced modern telecommunications, medicine, transportation, etc. to an obscure tribe in Papua New Guineau or the Amazon rainforest, they could just as well be said to have developed instantly from a neolithic to modern industrial society. Incredible! How did they do it?)
So what? Concerning product safety, a wide range of legal and other mechanisms have already been developed to deal with this issue. Problems experienced by other countries during the course of their development occurred when the available technology, laws etc. were at a different standard than they are now.
This means two things: 1. there are no corresponding periods between the current development of China and those developed countries to which it compares itself, since they had to develop their technology, laws, etc. by themselves; 2. given the current existence of well-defined instruments to deal with product-safety and similar problems, following a simple process of elimination, one is forced to conclude that the only things left to develop are the PRC government itself and its citizens.
By trying to exculpate itself with the claim it is still developing, the PRC government exposes itself and its people as the problem. The existential question it faces is whether they can be reformed. The Xinhua treatmet of PRRS in Guangdong suggests this is anything but certain.
Goose | 25-May-07 at 1:51 pm | Permalink
As someone who has worked inside the machine… (in CCTV - but the experiences are similar in Xinhua, CRI or China Daily) we can only hope that the coming stock market crash will open things up…
Clearly, serious health issues (e.g. SARS, bird flu and swine fever) is having no effect on the machine…
…but a stockmarket bust might.
If you look at any comparison graph between the Chinese markets now, and the Nasdaq in 1999 - 2000, you’ll see that the Chinese markets have exceeded the Nasdaq in terms of percentage rise - and the bigger the rise, the harder the fall! http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/04/china_syndrome.html
…if you go into the brokerages it’s really amazing (widows, orphans and pensioners spending their days looking at banks of numbers - the atmosphere is like an old fahioned smokey betting shop in the British Isles on Grand National Day!) Tragic in a way, but really amazing nonetheless! The people have no experience, but they will have pretty soon!!
There’s anecdotal evidence all around of Ayis not turning up to work (for their 15 kuai an hour) in order to spend the day day-trading… …and of 14 year olds being given their college funds to invest themselves! None of these groups have any previous knowledge that the stock market even existed!
It’s amazing to see - party like it’s March 2000!
I’m really hoping that the main upshot of all this is that the media sectors is opened up to foreign investment etc…
The bubble will burst - and by the end of the year there will be reprecussions - The small investors will be saying; “Hey we didn’t know it was risky - it was all rigged against us!!!”
The government will be trying to deflect critics and will try and point the finger at foreign entities - which won’t work because they’ve largely excluded foreign investors from the market. It’s all their own work! Then they’ll try and clamp down on the media, which will make the problem worse, so hopefully then they’ll have to go the other way and open it up! Either way they’ll be seen to “lose face” (the biggest crime in China!) - I just hope it leads to information channels opening up more!
The market will do what the pigs and chickens couldn’t do!!!
gsgs | 25-May-07 at 2:20 pm | Permalink
please see this thread:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=23350&page=4
Guangxi-news had reported 20 million (!) dead pigs just in the last several months just only in 6 or such provinces. And this was quoted to promed.
Du Yisa | 25-May-07 at 8:58 pm | Permalink
@Erik
Thanks for the informed and informative comment, in which you wrote:
“I like your blog, but I feel the need to protect the Chinese government against charges of a cover-up.
The problem isn’t that the Chinese government hasn’t reported it. The problem is that much of the Western Media isn’t good at reporting it.”
With all due respect, this simply doesn’t follow from Chris’ post.
First, at no point did he claim that no PRC government agency had released information on annual porcine mortality - his observation was that the Xinhua number (300) for deaths specifically due to PRRS seemed suspect, particularly considering that western media sources were reporting an annual (in this case Q1, as you correctly observed) overall mortality rate orders of magnitude higher.
Second, I’d like to see a 2007 Q1 PRRS death rate from the Ministry of Agriculture, which you neglected to provide in your comment. Where is it?
Third, your claim that “much of the Western Media [caps in original] isn’t good at reporting it” is blatantly contradicted not only by Chris’ post, in which the numbers offered in western media sources are consistent with the Ministry of Agriculture figure you provide, but also by your own employment:
“I cover commodities in China for a western news agency”.
I believe the appropriate English word here is ‘natch’.
mike | 26-May-07 at 12:13 pm | Permalink
Funny, Du Yisa, after reading our post, I thought the appropriate Engslish word was ‘twat’
Du Yisa | 26-May-07 at 3:53 pm | Permalink
Of course you did.
nanheyangrouchuan | 27-May-07 at 10:05 am | Permalink
There should be cause for concern in the west with respect to contaminated pork. Processed food materials as well as seafood and veggies have been imported from China into the US and possibly Europe. Why would such wealthy regions/nations import food from China? Under political pressure to help keep China’s agricultural industry afloat and promote internal stability among China’s rural population. Amcham, Ozcham and EUcham would be at the forefront of promoting this arrangement to appease their masters in Beijing and in the corporate boardrooms. So it is plausible and likely that China’s diseased pork is in the West with the full knowledge of the import/export industry, foreign chambers of commerce and grocery store chains. Chinese pork must be rooted out and destroyed, and all imports from China must be blocked. There is nothing good, clean, useful or of any decent quality that comes from China. Would you eat or use anything grown or produced in a dirty junkyard? I wouldn’t.
Chris O'Brien | 27-May-07 at 1:16 pm | Permalink
Erik: Thank you for the insight - much appreciated (and long comments always welcome). By the way, the link for the strategic pork reserves is here:
http://english.people.com.cn/200705/26/eng20070526_378228.html
As Du Yisa pointed out, I’m not saying the Chinese government is covering anything up. The problem lies in the failure of some elements of the state media to report the issue. As I said, silence sparks unnecessary conspiracy theories. Unfortunately, when Xinhua did finally contact MOA to confirm the number of pig deaths, the MOA refused to comment.
As for the China Daily story, I am fully aware the rise in the price of livestock feed has been a factor - and it would help if the general media explained the situation as you just did. But to ignore the impact of blue-ear pig disease is unacceptable, particularly when the NDRC has made the direct link. The price of live pigs went up more than 70 percent in April - directly after the blue ear epidemic was reported. And, if the livestock feed is the main factor, why has it not affected the price of other meat to the same degree as pork?
Chris O'Brien | 27-May-07 at 1:45 pm | Permalink
Goose: It is a fascinating concept. What amazes me is the utter faith in the power of the Chinese government to prevent a major blip before the Olympics - despite nervous sounding warnings from the central government about the risks of stock market investment (which will entitle the government to say “Well we did warn you!”). I’m going to look into opening an account on Monday, not really to make money but because I feel a bit left out.
Chris O'Brien | 27-May-07 at 2:07 pm | Permalink
Du Yisa: Interesting comments as always although the generalisation about the Chinese people is unfair.
On a general note, a major difference between the development of Japan, US etc and China is that it occurred with the assistance of a free press. Only when the Chinese government realises the true benefit of freer media reporting on food scares, will it be able to implement effective supervision over food safety. Internal instructions on the issue just seem to be ignored by local governments. And of course public awareness will follow. But then I suppose this idea can be applied to most things in China..
Chris O'Brien | 27-May-07 at 2:21 pm | Permalink
nanheyangrouchuan: “There is nothing good, clean, useful or of any decent quality that comes from China. Would you eat or use anything grown or produced in a dirty junkyard?”
I’d be struggling if I didn’t - and to be honest I never think about it. As for pork exports, Erik (see above) knows more than me:
“For readers outside of China, don’t worry too much about eating tainted pork. Pork exports are very very small (a couple hundred-thousand tons / yr) given the scale of China’s pork industry, and a lot of this is sent to Russia and Vietnam.”
gsgs: Cheers for the link
Mike: Welcome back you little scallywag
Karol Sparling | 29-May-07 at 6:04 am | Permalink
I believe this one applies “Unless each man prodiuses more than he receives, increases his output, there will be less for him than all the others”, doesn’t it?
China Briefing Blog | 29-May-07 at 4:15 pm | Permalink
Pork, politics and China…
Pork has an illustrious history in government and politics. Long associated with wasteful, politically aimed spending - pork barrel politics - pigs have made their home in the slop of governmental politics. In China, local spending on pet projects….
Eyes East » Blog Archive » A wonderful, magical (diseased) animal | 29-May-07 at 11:28 pm | Permalink
[...] When pigs are dying in droves down south and China’s top health inspector is on death row, maybe it’s time to cut back on the swine. And Xinhua doesn’t seem to want to talk about it. [...]
bigalbert | 13-Jul-07 at 9:58 pm | Permalink
Just bumping an old article that seems to have come to fruition as yesterday rumors were circulating that China has come to the US with a 20000-40000 ton order of pork. Pork futures responded by trading up at near limit moves of 3$.